Are Microsoft sales number on VISTA a scam?

Question:

I heard Micorsoft shares went up 5% on sales of VISTA. Is this some kind of accounting trick? I thought sales were horrible. Won't the stock tank if people later realize the numbers are fixed. I heard MS played w/ the numbers on XBOX 360 sales. They count units sold to stores as part of their "base". Base has been defined in past as number of game machines in actual homes. The better your base; the better your system is doing in the market place. I would short MS if all this is true.

Answer:
It is not an accounting trick as opposed to a misrepresentation of the numbers. Microsoft is counting all the copies of VISTA it forced on every computer manufacturer such a DELL, TOSHIBA, FUGITSU and so on. DELL for instance, was only selling their computers with VISTA from the first official release of the program. There was no way to order a computer with Windows XP at all on Dell's website. Earlier this week DELL finally decided to start offering XP PRO and HOME with it's products again. They are, of course, not doing this out a sense of gratitude toward the buying public but, because for the second straight quarter they have lost market share to IBM. So, yes microsoft is selling lots of copies of VISTA, they are just not making it into the homes of consumers. They are in all the machines sitting on the shelves at BESTBUY, COMPUSA, and other retail stores.

gilgamesh said it best

actually its partial thruth. Dell went back to XP for cost cutting moves (Vista has some high demands like memory plus it takes longer to install it).

I like Vista bought it at compusa very stable very friendly nice upgrade to XP.

What Microsoft wanted was EVERYONE jumping on the Vista bandwagon (ala 95). That didn't happen for not only the reason above but they have four flavors of Vista and in some areas like Business it didn't sell that well but the barebones Home (and the better Home Plus) did make gains.

Microsoft has other problems noteably their xbox 360. They have an overheating issue and for a game maching thats annoying. But Wii is just blowing everyone out of the gaming world.

Would I short Microsoft? Not really for there isn't much downside to it. But then again there isn't that much of an upside unless they have something in the works.

Microsoft is currently the fourth most profitable company in the World excluding Oil Companies and the second most profitable company in the World excluding Oil Companies and Banks.

Microsoft is already one of the largest shareholders of Pacific Ethanol and it is likely they will buy a bank in the future.

Eventually they will be the most profitable company in the World excluding Oil Companies.

I suggest you to buy MSFT.
I am a Portfolio Manager with over a decade of experience in the Stock Market.

Are Microsoft sales number on VISTA a scam?

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