Accounting - Stock dividend question?
Question:
Does anyone know any of the following:
(a) What is the current expected price of stock
(b) What is the expected price of the stock at Year 6
Answer:
a) This question assumes a "Dividend Discount Model" (DDM). DDM discounts the dividend cash flows back at its present value.
NPV = CF1/(1+r)^1 + CF2/(1+r)^2 ... + perpetuity/(1+r)^n
CF0 = $2.00
PV(CF1) = ($2.00 x 1.30)/(1+r) = $2.60/(100%+18%) = $2.2034
PV(CF2) = ($2.60 x 1.30)/(1+r)^2 = $3.38/1.3924
PV(CF3) = ($3.38 x 1.15 )/ (1+r)^3= $3.887/1.643032
PV(CF4) = ($3.387 x 1.15) / (1+r)^4= $4.47005/1.938778
Perpetuity = coupon/(r-g)
coupon = $4.47005 x 1.04 = $4.648852
r = 18%
g = 4%
Perpetuity = $33.20608571
PV(Perpetuity) = $33.20608571 / (1+r)^5 = $14.51469
PV of all that is: $23.81689
b) Assuming you have NOT collected dividends for Year 6, the value is $34.54433 [Year 6 dividends/(r-g)]
Assuming you have collected dividends for Year 6 (which means you want the present value of the perpetuity one year forward is: [CF7/(r-g)]/(100%+r) = $30.43704
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